Saudi Seduction: A Love Story
In 1993, my 9-year-old cousin visited his father in Saudi Arabia with his 11-year-old sister. It wasn't a happy trip. His mother's movements were restricted, and he felt the weight of "dirty looks" whenever he walked outside with his sister. The moral police seemed omnipresent, scrutinizing any girl who dared to play outdoors. While boys rode bikes freely, girls remained confined, creating what he described as "a sad place, just not happy to be around."
Thirty years later, I asked if he'd consider working in Saudi Arabia. His response? "Oh definitely! They're paying a lot of cash, so sign me up!"
The Art of Seduction
The word seduction originates from seduce, which means to lead aside, from the Latin word seducer. It's always clear that any essay that starts with Latin is clearly going to be a deep and rigorous piece. Hopefully this is no different. While I'd love to continue dropping Latin to sound intellectual, let's talk about the impact of Saudi Arabia use of the ancient art of seduction, using money to bend people and organizations to their will.
Morgan Housel's "Same as Ever" argues that while history doesn't repeat, human behavior is remarkably consistent. Satan’s seduction of Adam & Eve is the first in recorded history and since then, the ensuing results have followed a similar pattern. The seduction phase is sweet, but in the end, there is always weeping and gnashing of teeth, be it Casanova’s conquests crying after he got bored, Julius Caesar whose greatness was diminished by the distraction of Cleopatra or the many South African ladies on Instagram with their bittersweet stories of the Nigerian boys that wooed them and ultimately let them down.
Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone
I must confess that I am not the most appropriate person to write an essay on seduction, and I have never claimed to be a Casanova. I recall my very first kiss at Ratcliffe College at the age of 13 with horror; I romantically led aside my ‘girlfriend’ -we didn't have 'partners' then - and proclaimed with great fervor, “I want to kiss.” B (you know a gentleman never tells) - , I am still sorry!) I hope my game is improved, but I don’t want feedback from anyone.
Professionally, I do not come here preaching with unblemished character. I have never benefited from any Saudi Arabian investments, but the company I co-founded, Carbon, was once given a beautiful offer for an investment, and ultimately acquisition, by a betting company. I hate gambling with a passion, and I found myself doing mental gymnastics that would qualify me for the Olympics. "Think of all the financial inclusion we could drive!" I rationalized while counting potential zeros in my bank account. If you saw how I twisted myself like a pretzel to justify that deal, you'd understand why I approach this topic with humility rather than judgment.
What I bring to this article is my keen observation of micro seduction over the years by Saudi Arabia, the moral indignation of a Sunday preacher who has previously walked in the shadow of darkness.
Saudi - from Pariah to Partner
Over the years, I have watched many commentators in America, the great and the good, rail against Saudi Arabia. Even before the unfortunate killing of Khashoggi today, where there was a queue line rush to get all kinds of Saudi Arabian investments into the American economy. There is no greater seducer than money.
Just a quick public service announcement: If anyone from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF), its $925bn sovereign juggernaut, is reading this article, this is not Ngozi. His account has been hacked and I am an AI bot who has taken over Ngozi’s Newsletter. But whilst Ngozi is away, let me tell you what I, NgoziBot, thinks about this whole palava.
Over the last decade, we have seen the Saudi Arabian complex increasingly doling out cash like candy at a kiddies' party. During that period, the recipients' attitude changed from reluctance to be publicly linked to the country because of some of its social policies, such as the ban on women drivers, intolerance of same-sex activity, and, most recently, the Saudi Arabian male guardianship system.
Consider Uber's $3.5 billion investment from PIF in 2016, when Saudi women couldn't drive. CEO at the time, Travis Kalanick, without a hint of irony, celebrated the partnership:
“Our experience in Saudi Arabia is a great example of how Uber can benefit riders, drivers, and cities, and we look forward to partnering with the Kingdom to support their economic and social reforms.”
Silicon Valley, usually quick to virtue signal, was mysteriously quiet about this contradiction.
Fast-forward eight years, and the dam has broken. Saudi Arabia now sponsors events in the desert, such as the latest Fury vs. Usyk boxing bout, the Jack Nicklaus-promoted LIV Golf tournament, and the Saudi Arabian football league. Just a few months ago, Andreeseen Horowitz (a16z) and PIF were rumoured to be in talks to partner on a $40 billion investment in artificial intelligence projects. Colour me unsurprised.
Until the PIF contact me with a life-changing deal (please, you can reach me at ngozi@getcarbon.co), my position is as follows: nothing good comes from haste.
Same as Ever.
Even just looking at the recent past of PIF, the future is not bright. LIV and PGA are a mess; the scandals at Uber and WeWork, both backed by the Saudi-Arabia-funded Vision Fund, were in no small part due to trying to absorb too much money too quickly by the companies. Just recently, Saudi Arabia scaled back NEOM, a $500bn mega project to diversify away from oil, at the same time as the unexplained departure of the project’s long-time CEO.
The House Always Wins
In seduction (please they told me, this is not from experience), the seduced typically end up worse off. Satan went off to continue his life after enlightening Eve & Adam, Cleopatra moved on to Mark Anthony and as for those Nigerian boys, let’s just say they are probably ok. Even Casanova ended well; he died at the ripe age of 73, with his last words apparently being, “I have lived as a philosopher, and I die as a Christian.” Now that is what I call gangster.
Similarly Saudi Arabia will be fine. They have a shit load of cash, and if they want to burn a bit in their attempts to influence policy, change perception or even win new friends, who cares. As they say, hate the game, not the player.
What about the ‘seduced’? It’s hard to be judgmental (and not be jealous!!). For all parties, these are life-changing sums whether you are a venture capitalist or a sportsperson. And once you see your peers accepting these deals and living their life’s dream, it would be hard to say no. If you can’t beat them join them, as the PGA showed.
The question isn't whether you'll be tempted - you will be. The question is whether you'll recognize the true cost of the deal. Because by the time you do, the seducer will be long gone, leaving you with nothing but a bite-marked apple and some explaining to do. At Carbon we rushed into a $10mm equity investment, discounting the veto rights that we agreed to and saying of our investors. "These guys are good guys, I can't imagine us ever having an argument". I don’t have to tell you how that story ended.
The jury is still out on a lot of Saudi’s initiatives; the playbook has been a lot of hand-wringing and expressing concerns by stakeholders even as they accepted mouth-watering sums but history tells us what to expect. If you look around you already see the carcasses of startups that worshipped at the altar of blitzscaling funded capital desperate to find a home. They took a shitload of cash in exchange for license to grow recklessly whilst minimizing dilution.
Lessons from History
In April this year, the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) selected Saudi Arabia as the host for their season-ending finals featuring the top 8 singles players for three years (2024-2026). A key goal was “to raise awareness of the game and introduce more women into the sport” in a country with “huge potential for growth”. Everyone expressed concern initially about the deal, and the state of human rights for women but Saudi’s committment and record prize money helped assuage some of these.
Yet when only 400 people - about 8% of stadium capacity - attended day 2 of the tournament featuring stars like Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, the WTA quietly stopped releasing attendance figures. An amazing event by all accounts in terms of organization, but perhaps too much, too soon.
The Seduction Playbook is clear:
Wave life-changing money
Watch principles bend like reeds in the wind
Express "concerns" while accepting the check
Rationalize with talk of "engagement" and "reform"
Count money while avoiding mirrors
We've seen this movie before. Too much money too fast usually ends in tears. But like every person who's ever been seduced, we convince ourselves "this time it's different."
Here's what's actually different: Saudi Arabia doesn't need us to succeed - they have plenty of oil money to burn. But when the music stops, the seduced are left holding the bag. Just ask any startup that chased blitzscaling over unit economics, or any sports league that sold its soul for short-term gains.
Act in haste, repent at leisure. Same as Ever.
P.S. If anyone from the PIF is reading this, my DMs are open. I promise to edit this article appropriately after we close the round. 😉
This is the definition of a good write-up!